Q2 2026 FX Timing Intelligence Report
Where the moves happened. When to have been in. An independent, data-driven look at the six major pairs — 9,600 hourly prints and 1,114 economic events across USD, EUR, GBP, JPY, AUD and CAD.
- · Quarterly recap of every major pair (open / high / low / close, realised vol)
- · Top 12 event-driven moves — CPI, central-bank decisions, payrolls
- · Best and worst UTC hours to have transacted in each pair
- · Full methodology and CSV appendix available on request
Executive summary
- USD/JPY led directional moves in Q2 with a +2.53% swing from open to close.
- AUD/USD was the quarter's most volatile major pair, printing ~5.1% annualised realised vol.
- Event risk peaked around Housing Starts YoY (Mar) (JPY) on 2026-04-30, moving USD/JPY by -1.36% within the first hour.
Pair-by-pair recap
Open, high, low, close, quarterly change and annualised realised volatility for each of the six majors, computed from hourly prints across Q2 2026.
| Pair | Open | Close | High | Low | Δ Q2 | Realised vol |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.15654 | 1.14042 | 1.18354 | 1.1330 | -1.39% | 3.3% |
| GBP/USD | 1.32427 | 1.32352 | 1.36496 | 1.31419 | -0.06% | 4.1% |
| USD/JPY | 158.7840 | 162.7980 | 162.7980 | 155.7570 | +2.53% | 3.8% |
| AUD/USD | 0.69026 | 0.68914 | 0.72685 | 0.68632 | -0.16% | 5.1% |
| USD/CAD | 1.39093 | 1.42174 | 1.42423 | 1.35619 | +2.22% | 2.5% |
| EUR/GBP | 0.87327 | 0.86162 | 0.87396 | 0.86052 | -1.33% | 2.0% |
Top event-driven moves
The twelve economic releases in Q2 2026 that produced the largest absolute 1-hour move in any major pair. Computed by joining each event's release timestamp against the nearest hourly rate print.
| Date (UTC) | Event | Ccy | Pair | 1h move | 24h move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 · 05:00 | Housing Starts YoY (Mar) | JPY | USD/JPY | -1.36% | -1.73% |
| 2026-04-30 · 05:00 | Consumer Confidence (Apr) | JPY | USD/JPY | -1.36% | -1.73% |
| 2026-04-07 · 16:35 | Fed Goolsbee Speech | USD | AUD/USD | +1.05% | +1.00% |
| 2026-06-17 · 18:30 | Fed Press Conference | USD | GBP/USD | -0.72% | -1.51% |
| 2026-06-17 · 18:30 | Press Conference | USD | GBP/USD | -0.72% | -1.51% |
| 2026-06-17 · 18:30 | Fed Press Conference | USD | EUR/USD | -0.69% | -1.19% |
| 2026-06-17 · 18:30 | Press Conference | USD | EUR/USD | -0.69% | -1.19% |
| 2026-04-07 · 16:35 | Fed Goolsbee Speech | USD | GBP/USD | +0.63% | +0.80% |
| 2026-04-07 · 16:35 | Fed Goolsbee Speech | USD | EUR/USD | +0.61% | +0.59% |
| 2026-06-11 · 12:30 | Core PPI MoM (May) | USD | AUD/USD | +0.58% | +0.86% |
| 2026-06-11 · 12:30 | Producer Price Index MoM (May) | USD | AUD/USD | +0.58% | +0.86% |
| 2026-06-11 · 12:30 | Initial Jobless Claims (Jun/06) | USD | AUD/USD | +0.58% | +0.86% |
Timing intelligence: best and worst UTC hours
Average absolute hourly return by UTC hour-of-day, per pair. The "calmest" hour is the window with the lowest realised movement — historically the best window for time-insensitive execution. The "most active" hour is where price discovery concentrated.
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